U.K. Conservative Manifesto Launch: What We Know, What We Expect

(Bloomberg) -- Sign up to our Brexit Bulletin, follow us @Brexit and subscribe to our podcast.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveils his Conservative Party’s election manifesto on Sunday with a promise to end the “seemingly unending Brexit box-set drama.”The Tories have pledged to loosen fiscal rules to allow more government spending, cut business rates and boost investment in schools and policing -- without raising income tax, value-added tax or National Insurance rates.Even so, the announcements so far have been far less radical than the Labour Party, which published its policies on Thursday. Based on statements and interviews with politicians, here’s what we expect the Tory plan to contain:BrexitRatify Johnson’s deal with the European Union before the new Jan. 31 deadlineOnce that’s done, negotiate and ratify a free-trade agreement with the EU quickly enough to ensure an extension to the transition phase -- scheduled to end at the end of 2020 -- is not neededTaxation, Spending Borrow more to invest in infrastructure under loosened fiscal rules, which will allow an increase of 13.8 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in spending across all departments by 2021The rates of income tax, national insurance and VAT will not rise Raise the threshold for making National Insurance contributions from 8,628 pounds year to 9,500 in the government’s first budget, with a goal to raise it to 12,500 pounds at an unspecified future dateReduce the “overall burden” of business ratesIncrease the tax relief on buildings and research and developmentThe party has said a planned cut in corporation tax is shelvedLaborRaise the minimum wage to 10.50 pounds an hour by 2024A National Skills Fund, which will give individuals and small businesses the chance to receive vocational trainingEnvironmentMake the U.K. carbon neutral by 2050, including by planting 30 million treesSpend 6.3 billion pounds on energy efficiency measures to cut fuel bills in millions of homesA ban on exporting plastic waste outside OECD countries to reduce ocean damageHealth CareAn extra 34 billion pounds a year in funding for the state-run National Health Service by 2024A 2.7 billion-pound investment to build 40 hospitals. This has been widely disputed by opposition parties and fact-checkers, who put the actual number of new hospitals at sixCommit 1 billion pounds per year extra funding to local authorities so they can better deal with demands for social care End hospital car park charges for some staff, patients and visitorsEducationA 1 billion-pound investment to boost childcare provisionsMore funding for schools as part of a broader increase in public spendingHousingBuild at least 1 million more homes by 2024Introduce a 3% surcharge to foreign buyers of homes in EnglandBan “no fault evictions,” where tenants are evicted before the end of their contract without a proper reasonLifetime rental deposits program, allowing payments to be transferred when tenants move houseLaw, PolicingRecruit 20,000 new police officersIncrease stop-and-search powers for policeEnsure those guilty of premeditated murder of a child are never eligible for releaseTransport New fund to reopen disused railway lines axed in the 1960s, beginning with northern EnglandInvest 2 billion pounds to repair the U.K.’s roadsImmigrationAn Australian-style points-based visa system to prioritize skilled workersTo contact the reporter on this story: Greg Ritchie in London at gritchie10@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs, James AmottFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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